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Average sea surface temperatures are expected to rise 4° this century, and marine phytoplankton and bacterial community composition, biogeochemical rates, and trophic interactions are all expected to change in a future warmer ocean. Thermal experiments typically use constant temperatures; however, weather and hydrography cause marine temperatures to fluctuate on diel cycles and over multiple days. We incubated natural communities of phytoplankton collected from California coastal waters during spring, summer, and fall under present-day and future mean temperatures, using thermal treatments that were either constant or fluctuated on a 48 h cycle. As assayed by marker-gene sequencing, the emergent microbial communities were consistent within each season, except when culture temperatures exceeded the highest temperature recorded in a 10-year local thermal dataset. When temperature treatments exceeded the 10-year maximum the phytoplankton community shifted, becoming dominated by diatom amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) not seen at lower temperatures. When mean temperatures were above the 10-year maximum, constant and fluctuating regimes each selected for different ASVs. These findings suggest coastal microbial communities are largely adapted to the current range of temperatures they experience. They also suggest a general hypothesis whereby multiyear upper temperature limits may represent thresholds, beyond which large community restructurings may occur. Now inevitable future temperature increases that exceed these environmental thresholds, even temporarily, may fundamentally reshape marine microbial communities and therefore the biogeochemical cycles that they mediate.

Increased stratification and mixed layer shoaling of the surface ocean resulting from warming can lead to exposure of marine dinitrogen (N₂)‐fixing cyanobacteria to higher levels of inhibitory ultraviolet (UV) radiation. These same processes also reduce vertically advected supplies of the potentially limiting nutrient phosphorus (P) to N₂fixers. It is currently unknown how UV inhibition and P limitation interact to affect the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and carbon in these biogeochemically critical microbes. We investigated the responses of the important and widespread marine N₂‐fixing cyanobacteriaCrocosphaera(strain WH0005) andTrichodesmium(strains IMS 101 and GBR) to UV‐A and UV‐B under P‐replete and P‐limited conditions. Growth, N₂fixation, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fixation rates ofTrichodesmiumIMS 101 andCrocosphaerawere negatively affected by UV exposure. This inhibition was greater forTrichodesmiumIMS 101 than forCrocosphaera, which fixes N₂only during the night and so avoids direct UV damage. Negative effects of UV on both IMS 101 andCrocosphaerawere less in P‐limited cultures than in P‐replete cultures. In contrast, no UV inhibition was observed in GBR, regardless of P availability. UV inhibition was related to different amounts of UV‐absorbing compounds produced by these isolates. Responses to UV radiation and P availability interactions were taxon‐specific, but our results indicated that in general, UV radiation effects onTrichodesmiumandCrocosphaerarange from negative to neutral. UV inhibition and its interactions with P limitation may thus have a substantial influence on the present day and future nitrogen and carbon cycles of the ocean.